Croatia - Spain

The Zagreb crowd will sense something different about this encounter—Spain arrive as table-toppers, while Croatia sit desperately trying to claw back ground in a competition that's slipping away. Luis de la Fuente's squad has been utterly relentless, stringing together five consecutive victories and outscoring opponents 14-5 in that stretch, yet the real story here might be written in what happens away from home.

Croatia's home record tells a concerning tale: just one clean sheet in their last five matches at the Maksimir, and they've shipped twelve goals in that run. That vulnerability will feel particularly acute against Spain's travelling prowess. The visitors haven't lost a single away game this window, winning all five while conceding only three times across those fixtures—a defensive masterclass that suggests the Croatian attack will find few openings.

The head-to-head narrative adds another layer of caution. While these nations have produced four games with over 2.5 goals in their last five meetings, both teams scored only in three of those occasions. Spain's current defensive solidity, combined with Croatia's fragile home backline, points toward a tighter contest than recent history might suggest.

Back the under 3.5 goals at 1.73. Spain's five consecutive clean sheets on the road remains the standout metric here—expecting a low-scoring Spanish masterclass in Zagreb.